Americans Away From Home

Dear Democrats Around the World,

To comment go to www.wednesdaywire.com or to me personally at johncmcqueen@gmail.com

 

WW 158 is sponsored by Meredith Wheeler, founder and Chair of the Southwest Chapter of Democrats Abroad France.   Meredith is the creative genius behind the Obama Bridge Project, later named "Yes We Span" which exited a lot of us around the world and the CD of which pleased Barack Obama very much. The idea was carried to the national campaign in the US and was a main reason why Obama campaigned in ruby red Sarasota, Florida the last week of the campaign. Thank you Meredith for your support and all you do for Democrats Abroad!! 

 

WW 159 will appear on 9 December 2008

1. No room in DC

2. Some ‘final’ numbers

3. The latest on the last three Senate races

4. What to do about Joe Lieberman

5. The Transition is going well

6. Whither WW?

7. State by State

8. Reading Recommendations

And finally…

1. No room in DC. 

The last two Inaugurals have attracted 300,000 visitors to Washington DC each, according to the McClatchy newspaper chain. With 240,000 available tickets for the swearing in ceremony, perhaps a million spots for the parade and less than 150,000 for the 15 or so balls, 300,000 visitors plus the local population would be about right. How about 1.5 million for the Obama Inauguration?!! Hotel rooms at least $400 a night (four night minimum), every one of the 90.000 rooms in DC are booked out and most hotels to Richmond and Baltimore will be full at high prices. The DC Metro system will be taxed to the limit; restaurants will be jammed, parking impossible, airflights not available, trains overcrowded. I’m not going! We’re going to have a champagne Inaugural party here in Heidelberg and watch it all on TV.

       

2. Some ‘final’ numbers: 

The vote count continues and is still not done, Missouri is still not decided between Obama and McCain, and it is not totally clear yet that Obama has won the single EV for the 2^nd congressional district in Nebraska, but here are the latest numbers:

           

            Obama 66,318,331 votes 52.6% 364 EVs (so far)

            McCain 58, 014,818 votes 46.1% 162 EVs (so far)

            Others 1,631,990 votes, 1.3%

 

            Update from 7 pm, CET, 12 November

            Obama 66,354,468 votes 52.7

            McCain 58,17,958 votes 46.0

            Others 1,632,401 votes 1.3

 

            The votes still keep coming in, but as of yet, no record turnout by percentage.

 

            Senate: 55 Democrats 40 Republicans 2 Independents; 3 races undecided

            House: 255 Democrats 174 Republicans 6 Undecided

 

            From dailykos:

                       

            Who did the best aggregate polling? The actual results, as of now, are 52.6 Obama, 46.1 McCain.

 

                       Prediction                                                                      Difference

                                                            Obama             McCain    

                        FiveThirtyEight.com: 52.3                    46.2                 0.4

                        Real Clear Politics:        52.1                44.5                 2.1

                        Pollster.com:                 52.0                44.4                 2.3

 

            I have to admit, as the campaign went along, I began to distrust Pollster.com more and more; the problem as I saw it was that this site kept older polls in the calculations far too long; RCP, as conservative as it was and as often as it included polls that didn’t seem that impartial, dropped out the older ones, and seemed more accurate. Only late in the campaign did I start paying closer attention to FiveThrityEight.com, but their methodology was clearly more rigorous. We will be hearing of them and their guru, Nate Silver, a lot more in the coming years.

 

            WW’s serious prediction was 364-174, but probably will not end up as the final number, but if current vote totals hold it will be one off at 365-173. I predicted Missouri would go to Obama and Indiana to McCain, they were/appear reversed, but each has the same number of EVs (11), so the number came out the same. Still sorry about Texas, but you realized that I was joking just a bit/wishing a lot more.

 

            The reddest state is no longer Utah. It’s Oklahoma at 66 – 34, the bluest state is no longer Rhode Island, it’s Hawaii at 72 -27 (DC is 93-7). 

 

            Red states under 10% (and therefore real targets for 2010 and 2012 are: Missouri 0, Montana -3, Georgia -5, North Dakota -8, South Dakota -8, Arizona -9, South Carolina -9. 

            Blue states to defend: North Carolina 0, Indiana +1, Florida +3, Ohio +4, Virginia +7, Iowa +9, Colorado +9.

 

 

ALASKA. Ted Stevens leads Mark Begich by 3,257 votes with 90,000+ remaining to be counted, nearly half of which will be counted today. No matter what happens to the vote, Stevens will be thrown out of the Senate, so the question comes down to whether Begich is the new US Senator from Alaska or will there be another election within 90 days after Stevens’ departure? The Alaska Election Board claims that counting is not any slower than in previous years, but that they are being more careful, because 26 people voted twice in the August primary. Among the 90.000 are 20,000 Questioned ballots, mostly from people who do not end up voting in their own precincts, but somewhere else; so these are expected to be counted once the registration records have been checked. We should know a lot more tomorrow.

 

MINNESOTA. The margin between Norm Coleman and Al Franken is 206 votes in Coleman’s favor, but the final certification of the result has not yet taken place, which must precede the automatic recount. Coleman has criticized Franken for not conceding (!) and is accusing the Minnesota Secretary of State of being another Katherine Harris. The Recount Board will be named today; hundreds of lawyers on both sides are already named and will closely watch the physical recount in each of the 87 counties. Don’t expect the final result until mid-December and that assumes the losing side doesn’t file a lawsuit.

 

GEORGIA. Chambliss just missed winning 49.8 to Martin’s 46.8; a runoff now appears certain on 2 December. John McCain and Sarah Palin will appear for Chambliss; Obama has sent campaign staffers into Georgia to help, but there is growing concern on the Martin campaign’s part that Barack himself will not appear in the state to help secure this seat. A loss with Obama campaigning in the state would be seen as a loss in prestige prior to the inauguration. Progressive/left bloggers are pushing for more Obama involvement as payback to Chambliss’ treatment of Max Cleland. 

 

 

4. What to do about Joe Lieberman. 

Next to how the Republicans will ultimately react to their defeat and whether they will at least try to work with Obama during the ‘honeymoon’, the biggest parlor game in Washington is “what to do about Joe?” Do the Democrats keep him in the Democratic caucus; let him keep his old committee chairmanship (Homeland Security) or give him another one (Small Business committee) or throw him out completely? There are conflicting reports on just what Obama said to Harry Reid, but it is clear that, at the minimum, Obama wants Lieberman to remain voting with the Democrats, despite the many and constantly repeated videos of Joe’s despicable behavior toward the party and especially toward Obama personally. 

            a. The initial meeting between Harry Reid and Joe did not go well. Reid tried to get Joe to voluntarily step down from his committee; afterwards Joe went before the press to try to pressure the Dem caucus to keep him where he now is and forgive all. Schumer and Durbin made it clear they don’t want him to remain chairman of Homeland Security. Bayh and Dodd have come to Lieberman’s defense and Bill Clinton has been reported to have made calls on Joe’s behalf. Hillary says she is dong nothing either way; it’s Reid’s show.

            b. Obama has tried to remain above the fray, showing that he will forgive and forget, but will not dictate his choice to the caucus. Most pundits are watching Durbin as the ‘real voice’ of Obama on the issue.

            c. The whole issue comes down to a vote of the entire Dem caucus on 19 November, where 53 Senators and Senators-to-be will decide. (Obama and Biden will not vote; Franken and Begich cannot be included, but all of the other new Senators will be allowed to vote; Lieberman will be allowed to make his case, but does not have a vote.). The Dem blogs are out in force against Lieberman holding onto the chairmanship; some think it OK that he take another committee as a ‘face saving’ compromise; others want him gone. If you feel strongly and have a Dem Senator, give your Senator a call by going to this website: http://tools.advomatic.com/7/kickjoe . It is very unlikely that the Dems will throw Joe L out of the caucus; it is more likely that Joe will leave on his own accord if he doesn’t win the vote to keep that powerful committee chairmanship.   

 

5. The Transition is going well. 

In watching the Obama team go to work on the Transition to power; several noteworthy items:

            a. The White House visit was well covered, but lower keyed than expected. Neither side made any grandiose statements, but it became clear that Obama asked Bush to accomplish some specific tasks before Inauguration Day related to the economy. 

            b. Despite reports before the election that Obama would be quick to name his cabinet; the opposite will be the case and the press leaks of potential names continues. There are many old Clinton names to chew on, but close Obama advisors are in the mix and the Team has made it clear that Republicans and Independents will be include ‘and not in token numbers.”  

            c. The choice of Rahm Emanuel has generally been met with approval within the party; the House leadership automatically becomes more liberal; the seriousness of Obama’s program remains undoubted with Rahm at the helm. With the announced departure of Howard Dean from the DNC, there is concern that the 50 State strategy may be over; several hundred employees around the country got their pink slips this week.

            d. While some think it too little, John Podesta’s announcement of the rules for lobbyists with the transition and in the first year of the administration, is making it clear that Obama was not kidding when he campaigned on an anti-lobbying theme.

            e. The Presidential Executive Order fight is now on full force. The Bush Administration made it clear before the election that they would issue many new Executive Orders to loosen environmental and energy rules in particular, the Obama Transition Team announced that they would review ALL Bush’s EOs since 2001 and Dem Congressional leaders announced that they might use the authority of an obscure law to overturn any Bush EOs announced after 1 September and do it with one single piece of legislation that cannot be filibustered by the Senate. From the Obama campaign history, it is never wise to underestimate how he can use the power of legislation to get his way.

            f. 450 Transition team employees are pouring over the résumés of several thousand job applicants; there is a promise that appointments will be handled quickly by the Senate.

 

6. Whither WW? 

Wednesday Wire is four years old this week. It was founded in the wake of the disaster of the 2004 election and I have spent most of my time writing about the failures, crimes, corruption and unconstitutional behavior of the worst president in US history and his friends and our country’s enemies. Readers have responded in very gratifying ways over all that time; the criticisms have been very fair and many heeded; suggestions for topic coverage have been many fewer than expected, which has left me with the feeling that I was covering what you wanted to read about. But:

            a. like many other blogs, newsletters and reports after the election, the specter of Bush the Bad will no longer light our fires after 20 January, 2009 (as the sticker on my refrigerator says: “the end of an error.”). We are in control of Presidency, Senate, House and a majority of the State Governorships. We are winning on all levels, including state legislatures, Secretaries of State, Attorney Generals. The tales of corruption, sexual misdeeds, stupid actions and just plain incompetence may soon be our own. 

            b. The major stories will be very different over the next two to four years. We may have some disappointments over policy direction; lack of effort, leadership failures at any level, internal party decisions. We are all thrilled at the prospect of an Obama presidency with enhanced majorities; we may see the direction of our country change for the better; our reputation around the world restored; indeed peace may break out for awhile. Anything less and we have to blame ourselves.

            c. The nature of the most interesting stories may be quite different. The details of economic recovery, climate control, reducing energy dependence, foreign policy, health care reform and extension to those not covered, education reform etc. etc. etc. will demand more attention to substantive factual presentation rather than the reporting of malfeasance, arrogance and illegal action. One reporter cannot be expert in all of these areas.

            With this issue of Wednesday Wire, I am going to take the next three Wednesdays off. I will be thinking hard about what the future of WW should be and I want you, my readers, to help me. Send your thoughts to my email address (johncmcmqueen@gmail.com) and let me have your thoughts on what WW should be doing over the next two years, what should be covered in any case; what can be left out without any great loss. I don’t want to prejudice any comments by being more specific; if you think WW should end it’s run, tell me that too. 

            . 

 

CALIFORNIA. Favorite story from the Election. On the ballot in San Francisco was a measure to rename the city sewage plant after George W. Bush. It was expected to pass easily in the city of ‘San Francisco values.’ Result: 69-31 AGAINST!! Why? Turns out the voters felt that it would be an insult to the hardworking folks that take care of the city’s waste to have to go to a place called George W. Bush…

 

NEBRASKA. The Cornhusker state, rock ribbed Republican for so many years, is the only state with a unicameral state legislature and only one of two states that distribute Electoral Votes by congressional district, a fact that made the citizens proud. With the prospect that a Democrat will be the first to actually win a single Electoral Vote from a state since Michigan in 1892, the state legislature will take up a bill in January to revert back to the winner-take-all method. 

 

NEW HAMPSHIRE. A first in American history; New Hampshire is the first state to have a female majority in a state Senate. 13-11 and under Democratic control is the count of women to men in the Senate. The Speaker of the 424 member state House, the largest state House in the country, is also a woman. Half of the Federal congressional delegation are women too, one Representative and one new US Senator, Jeanne Shaheen, who is a former governor. Congratulations New Hampshire!!

 

8. Reading Recommendations. 

Some decent reading for this week:

 

            a. “Lady Lynn Forester de Rothschild: The Female Joe Lieberman” by Beth Arnold at

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/beth-arnold/lady-lynn-forester-de-rot_b_139958.html. Lest we forget who was in our midst and the folks who brought her there.

 

            b.   “Democrats: An extremely dangerous situation is developing just beneath the radar. We need to be fully prepared.” by James Vega at,

http://www.thedemocraticstrategist.org/ .

 

            c. “The Top Ten Power Brokers of the Religious Right” by Rob Boston at

http://www.alternet.org/rights/103359/?page=entire . These people will not be going away.

 

            d. “The Climate for Change” by Al Gore at http://www.commondreams.org/view/2008/11/10-4 . 

 

            e.   “Obama's Toughest Challenge: America's Energy Crunch Comes Home”

by Michael T. Klare at

http://www.commondreams.org/view/2008/11/10 . 

 

            f.   “The Case for US Withdrawal From Afghanistan” by Sameer Dossani at

http://www.commondreams.org/view/2008/11/10-3 .

 

            g.   “The Disenfranchisement of My Daughter” by Stephen Zunes at

http://www.commondreams.org/view/2008/11/10-1 . The most important issue for me in election reform; this kind of story doesn’t belong in America.

 

            h.     “Documents linking Iran to nuclear weapons push may have been fabricated”

by Gareth Porter at

http://rawstory.com/news/2008/IAEA_suspects_fraud_in_evidence_for_1109.html . You mean someone could have been lying about Iran just like they did about Iraq?!!

 

            i.   “Why Obama Won” by Steve Lombardo at

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/why_obama_won.php . Some interesting numbers crunching.

 

            j.   “Dems eye midnight regulations reversal” by: Erika Lovley and Ryan Grim at

http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=8DD22BE8-18FE-70B2-A8066F5505D32C1B . Some detail on how to fight back against the Executive Order tricks.

 

And finally…

For all of you who will be in Istanbul for the Democrats Abroad meeting this weekend; have a good time, celebrate our combined victory and rightly applaud what we did right!!

 

            But at the same time, help us make sure that we continue to do it right, by taking a critical and close look at

            What we did,

            What are the numbers who registered with us? With other voter registration tools? 

            What was successful and what failed to gain new members?

            Did we spend our money wisely at our primary, at meetings, on videos, on advertising, on Get Out the Vote, on reaching voters’ problems and needs?

            Did we raise our funds in the most optimal way?

 

            Those of us not there are eagerly awaiting a full report on the good and the bad.

 

Best regards,

 

Heidelberg, Germany