WW Daily Election Report No. 23 and Last

Mon, 11/03/2008 - 21:13 — John McQueen

Dear Democrats Around the World,

This is WW Daily Election Report No. 23 and Last, 3 November 2008

We’re at the end of the road. Election Day is tomorrow.

Monday daily reports are sponsored by Christine Heinerscheid, Chair, DA Luxembourg.

If you have ALREADY asked to be on the direct link to tomorrow’s bi-hourly reports and do not receive this message from me directly, please advise ASAP.

The pundits have pontificated, the polls have been taken, the candidates are at their last rallies today before going home to await the results and now it is up to the people to decide. The questions now turn to Election Day weather, the ground game in each state, turnout, how many have already voted and for whom, problems at the polls, the fairness of the count, how fast states will report results and how the networks will report. More than a billion US dollars have been spent, 22 months of campaigning for Barack Obama –

and the whole world waits…

Candidates campaign schedule for 3 November:

Barack Obama in Jacksonville, Florida, Charlotte, North Carolina, and Manassas, Virginia. Michelle Obama will be in Las Vegas, Nevada, and Littleton, Colorado.

Joe Biden in Lee's Summit, Missouri, Zanesville, and Copely, Ohio and Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.

McCain in Tampa, Florida, Blountville, Tennessee;(!!?) Moon Township, Pennsylvania; Indianapolis, Indiana, Roswell, New Mexico, Henderson, Nevada.

Sarah Palin: Lakewood, Ohio; Jefferson City, Missouri; Dubuque, Iowa; (!!?), Colorado Springs, Colorado, Reno and Elko, Nevada.

Election Day Weather in battleground states:

Overall, the country will have a pretty warm and storm-free day, a factor that favors the Democrats generally. Particularly good weather is forecast for Ohio, Indiana, Missouri and Florida. State by State:

Pennsylvania: Highs between 63 and 70, partly cloudy to sunny.

Virginia: Highs between 64 and 67, cloudy, showers possible.

N. Carolina: Highs between 63 and 68, showers.

Georgia: Highs between 68 and 77, Mostly sunny, cloudy in the east.

Florida: Highs between 77 and 83, Sunny everywhere!!

West Virginia: Highs between 65 and 76, Sunny to partly cloudy.

Ohio: Highs between 69 and 77, Sunny, a beautiful day!!

Indiana: Highs between 71 and 77, Sunny, a beautiful day!!

Missouri: Highs between 71 and 76, Sunny, a beautiful day!!

North Dakota: Highs between 55 and 64, partly cloudy to showers.

Montana: Highs between 42 and 61, snow showers, cloudy.

Colorado: Highs between 51 and 70, partly cloudy to showers.

New Mexico: Highs between 65 and 80, sunny to showers.

Texas: Highs between 75 and 84, mostly sunny.

Arizona: Highs between 51 and 70, windy/showers North, Phoenix sunny.

Electoral Vote Update:

Obama McCain

WW by region Solid Lean Tossup Lean Solid

NE & Mid Atlantic (117) 117 0 0 0 0

South Plus (173) 13 0 42 0 118

Midwest/Upper Plains (124) 65 20 25 4* 10

West Coast/Mountain (124) 91 5 0 3 25

Total (538) 286 25 7 153

311 67 160

* Nebraska 02 congressional district (1)

Final look at the polling in battleground states:

State/EVs RCP pollster.com Status

538 odds (O) Obama – McCain Obama – McCain

NH/4/99 52.8 – 42.2 52.9 – 41.0 Solid O

PA/21/98 51.3 – 44.0 51.8 – 44.5 Solid O

VA/13/93 50.0 – 45.8 50.6 – 44.3 Solid O

NC/14/53 47.8 – 47.8 48.4 – 47.4 Toss Up

GA/15/5 46.0 – 49.0 46.4 – 48.6 Solid M

FL/27/64 50.0 – 45.8 48.2 – 45.5 Toss Up

WV/5/0 42.5 – 51.0 41.7 – 53.6 Solid M

OH/20/80 48.8 – 44.6 49.9 – 44.3 Lean O

IN/11/27 46.2 – 47.6 46.8 – 47.3 Toss Up

MO/11/39 47.2 – 47.6 48.4 – 46.6 Toss Up

ND/3/25 no average 46.0 – 42.9 Toss Up

NV/5/74 49.6 – 43.4 50.0 – 44.1 Lean O

MT/3/19 45.0 – 48.8 45.1 – 48.4 Lean M

CO/9/96 50.5 – 45.0 51.4 – 44.5 Solid O

NM/5/99 50.3 - 43.0 52.3 – 43.7 Solid O

AZ/10/3 45.8 – 49.3 43.8 – 49.0 Solid M

TX/34/0 40.5 – 53.5 40.8 – 54.3 Toss Up!!!*

* See below for why this is/might be.

McCain’s winning chances:

If we believe the McCain campaign, the following states are still in play:

PA, OH, VA, NC, FL, IN, MO, NV and ND

Assuming this is so, which would mean that Obama would have 252 EVs, what does McCain have to do to win?

At this point, Obama has 14 different possible winning combinations, McCain has 7, but IN EVERY CASE, he has to win PA, OH and FL.

a. If Obama wins:

Virginia; McCain has to sweep the rest.

North Carolina, McCain has to sweep the rest.

Indiana or Missouri, McCain has to win the big three and NC, VA and either Missouri or Indiana or ND plus NV.

Nevada, McCain has to win the big three and NC, VA and either Missouri or Indiana

North Dakota, he has 10 possible winning combinations among the remaining states; McCain has 4 chances, but has to win the big three and NC in all four.

b. If Obama wins PA or OH or FL, he’s president-elect without any of the other states listed.

Wednesday Wire Final Predictions for President and Senate:

Starting with the US Senate:

Democrats will pick up:

Virginia – Mark Warner

New Mexico – Mark Udall

Colorado – Tom Udall

New Hampshire – Jeanne Shaheen

Alaska – Mark Begich

Oregon – Jeff Merkley

Minnesota – Al Franken

Kentucky – Bruce Lunsford

Georgia will go to a runoff in December (potential ninth win.)

Republicans will hold Maine, Mississippi, Texas and Nebraska and will not gain Louisiana. The new Senate will be 59-40 with the runoff to come in December.

The final word on the Presidential race:

Obama will win all solid and lean states (Ohio, Nevada) plus Toss Ups Florida (27), North Carolina (15) and Missouri (11) for a total of 364 Electoral Votes.

McCain will win his solids and leans plus Indiana (11) and North Dakota (3) for 174. Thus my prediction for 400 EVs made last June won’t come to pass………or?

What about Texas? Texas!! The last polling in Texas was nearly two weeks ago and Obama was down by 10 points. Early voting statistics in the six largest counties show that an additional 834,000 voted than in 2004, which, if 80% are for Obama (not unreasonable), would bring the victory margin compared to George W. Bush to less than a million, and John McCain isn’t going to come close to that, polling in the low 50s. The Latino vote in Texas has not been heard from and the early voting statistics for the 249 other counties, many where Latinos live, is not known. If there is going to be a big surprise tomorrow, it will come in Texas. You saw it here first.

Obama will win Texas and get 34 more EVs!!!

Which brings Obama to – 399!!

Best regards,

John McQueen

Heidelberg, Germany

Bookmark/Search this post with: