WW Daily Election Report No. 22

Mon, 11/03/2008 - 11:55 — John McQueen

Dear Democrats Around the World,

This is WW Daily Election Report No. 22, 2 November 2008

Day After Tomorrow is Election Day!!!!!!!!

Candidates campaign schedule for 1 November:

Obama (with Michele): Columbus, Cleveland and Cincinnati, Ohio; Joe and Jill Biden: Tallahassee, Gainesville and Daytona Beach, Florida

McCain: Wallingford and Scranton, Pennsylvania, Peterborough, New Hampshire and Miami, Florida; Sarah Palin: Canton, Marietta and Owensville, Ohio

What’s happening now.

Will keep it short today because of the full and final coverage of the competitive House races below.

a. Dick Cheney endorsed John McCain, which got extensive coverage on the major networks and in Barack Obama’s speeches, but strangely enough, Fox News barely mentioned. Hmmmmm…

b. Sarah Palin got a prank call from two Montreal radio station comedians; one pretending to be President Sarkozy of France. She never did get it, the radio jock had to tell her at the end that it was a joke; after making several comments about hot his wife was, how he loved to kill animals, particularly from a helicopter and how great it would be to go hunting with her, but without Dick Cheney. But, even after finding out it was a joke, she had the presence of mind to ask for the radio station’s call letters, before one of her aides grabbed the phone and ended the conversation.

c. You remember the headline about the New York County that misspelled Obama’s name on the ballot as Osama. I now have a good idea how it happened because it happened to me yesterday. Here’s the line from my draft: “McCain 96% Obama4%” and here’s the line from the final that went out, which many of you noticed: “McCain 96% Osama 4%%”

After transferring the draft from Word to Outlook Express, the Outlook Express spell checker caught the missing space between Obama and 4%, when it offered me the menu to correct, I separated Obama from the 4, but didn’t notice that the spell checker automatically renamed Obama into Osama. When Obama is typed clean, there is no problem because his name is an added word in my email system, but when an error is connected, like an extra letter, symbol or number, Obama becomes Osama upon correction. Try it with your email program to see if it also happens. I am fairly sure that the New York county had a similar occurrence. In any event embarrassing, but not all cases of the switch are intentional. I wonder if Outlook will correct this after Obama becomes president.

d. the traveling schedules for the last three days clearly show where the election will be won: Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia, Nevada, Colorado, Florida and Missouri for Obama; while McCain and Palin travel there too, but also to Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and Iowa.

FINAL HOUSE OVERVIEW – ALL REGIONS

(Democratic candidates are always listed first; legend of codes is at the bottom.)

Republican Held Seats

(Every Dem win is +1)

New England and Middle Atlantic States:

Seat R1 CQ R2 S P C Category

CT 04 T T Td d T T II

Himes v. Shays

NY 13 d D D D D D I

McMahon v. Straniera

NY 25 d d D d D d I

Maffai v. Sweetland

NY 26 r r Tr d r T III

Kryzan v. Lee

NY 29 T d Td d d T II

Massa v. Kuhl

NJ 07 T T T T T T II

Stender v. Lance

PA 03 T T Td r T T I

Dahlkemper v. English

MD 01 r T T r T T II

Kratovil v. Harris

South Plus

Seat R1 CQ R2 S P C Category

VA 02 R r T r r T II

Nye v. Drake

VA 05 R r r r R r III

Perriello v. Goode

VA 11 d D d d D D I

Connolly v. Fimian

NC 08 T T d d d T I

Kissell v. Hayes

SC 01 R R r r r r III

Kettner v. Brown

FL 08 r d d d d T II

Grayson v. Keller

FL 13 R r R r R R III

Jennings v. Buchanan

FL 21 r r T d r T II

Martinez v. L. Diaz-Balart

FL 24 d d d d d d I

Kosmas v. Feeney

FL 25 T r Tr T T T II

Garcia v. M. Diaz-Balart

AL 02 T T T r T T II

Bright v. Love

KY 02 r r T d T T II

Boswell v. Guthrie

LA 04 R T R R R T III

Carmouche or Banks v. Fleming or Gorman*

WV 02 R r R R R r III

Barth v. Moore-Capito

* runoff will occur in December

Middle West and Upper Plains States

Seat R1 CQ R2 S P C Category

OH 01 r T T T T T II

Driehaus v. Cahbot

OH 02 r r r r r r II

Wulsin v. Schmidt

OH 15 T T Td d d d I

Kilroy v. Stivers

OH 16 d d D d d d I

Boccieri v. Schuring

IN 03 r r R T T r II

Montagano v. Souder

IL 10 T T Tr d T T II

Seals v. Kirk

IL 11 d d d d D d I

Halvorson v. Orzinga

IL 18 R R R r R R III

Callahan v. Schock

MI 07 T T T d D T II

Schauer v. Walberg

MI 09 T D d d T T II

Peters v. Knollenberg

MN 03 T T Td d T T II

Madia v. Paulsen

MN 06 T T Td d T T II

Tinklenberg v. Bachman

MO 06 r r R r R r III

Barnes v. Graves

MO 09 r r Tr r T T II

Baker v. Luetkemeyer

NE 02 R T Td R r d II

Esch v. Terry

West Coast and Mountain States:

Seat R1 CQ R2 S P C Category

CA 04 T T d T T T II

Brown v. McClintock

CA 50 R R R r R r III

Leibham v. Bilbray

WA 08 T T T d T T II

Burner v. Reichert

AK AL D d D d d T I

Berkowitz v. Young

NV 02 R r R r r r III

Derby v. Heller

NV 03 T T Td d T T II

Titus v. Porter

ID 01 T T Td T T T II

Minnick v. Sali

WY AL r T r d T r II

Trauner v. Lummis

CO 04 T d d d D T I

Markey v. Musgrave

NM 01 T T d d d d I

Heinrich v. White

NM 02 T r d d T T II

Teague v. Tinsley

AZ 01 d d D d D D I

Kirkpatrick v. Hay

AZ 03 r r R r T r II

Lord v. Shadegg

Dem pickups

7 12 15 27 15 10

Tossups 20 20 22 6 21 28

Categories I – 13; II – 27; III - 10

Best guess: Dems will pick up 30 seats (all 13 Is, 14 IIs and 3 IIIs.)

Democratic Held Seats

(Every Dem win is a 0; every Republican a -1)

New England and Middle Atlantic States:

Seat R1 CQ R2 S P C Category

NH 01 T T Td T d T IV

Shea-Porter v. Bradley

NY 19 D D D d D d V

Hall v. Lolar

NY 20 D d D d D d V

Gillibrand v. Treadwell

NJ 03 T T Tr d d T IV

Adler v. Myers

PA 04 D d d d D D V

Altmire v. Hart

PA 10 T d T d D d V

Carney v. Hackett

PA 12 d V

Murtha v. Russell

PA 11 r T T T T T IV

Kanjorkski v. Barletta

South Plus

Seat R1 CQ R2 S P C Category

FL 16 r r T r T R IV

Mahoney v. Rooney

GA 08 D D Td d D d V

Marshall v. Goddard

AL 05 d T T T D T IV

Griffith v. Parker

KY 03 d D D d D d V

Yarmouth v. Northrop

LA 06 D D T d d T V

Cazayoux v. Cassidy

TX 22 r T r r r T IV

Lampson v. Olson

TX 23 D d r D d d d V

Rodriguez v. Larson

Midwest and Upper Plains States:

Seat R1 CQ R2 S P C Category

OH 18 D D D d D D V

Space v. Daily

IN 09 D D D d D D V

Hill v. Sodrel

IL 14 D D D d D D V

Foster v. Oberweis

WI 08 T D T d d d IV

Kagan v. Gard

MN 01 D D D d D D V

Walz v. Davis

KS 02 D D Td d D d V

Boyda v. Jenkins

West Coast and Mountain States:

Seat R1 CQ R2 S P C Category

CA 11 D d d d D d V

McNierney v. Andal

OR 05 D D D d D D V

Schrader v. Erickson

AZ 05 D D D d D D V

Mitchell v. Schweikert

Republican pickups

3 2 1 2 1 0

Tossups 4 5 10 3 2 6

Categories: IV – 6; V – 17

Best guess: Republicans will pick up 2-4 IVs and 1-2 Vs,

Overall Democratic gain: 24 – 27 seats, could be higher if a ‘wave’ occurs.

Code: T = tossup; little d or little r is ‘lean/tilt’ capital R or D is a higher level of support, either likely, favored or safe. .

R1 = Real Clear Politics

CQ = Congressional Quarterly

R2 = Stuart Rothenberg Political Report

S = Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia writing for Rasmussen

P = Pollster.com, the polling average website we always use

C = The Cook Political Report

Categories:

I – Very likely Dem pickup

II – Toss Up

III – Lean Rep to Long Shot

IV – Very likely Rep pickup

V – Republican long shot

Tomorrow we run the battleground state tables one last time; give you the last Senate update and make the WW Election Prediction for 2008. Will I stay with June’s prediction of 400 EVs? Will we get to 60 in the Senate? Find out tomorrow in our last daily report.