Americans Away From Home

Dear Democrats Around the World,

Tuesday daily report sponsor is Beverly Olson-Dopffel, DAG Heidelberg chapter!!

 

Election Day is One Week from Today!!

WW Election Night Coverage: As previously announced, WW will go to a two hour reporting cycle on Election Night, beginning at 8 pm, Eastern Standard Time. Two years ago there were many around the world, who, either because of work commitments or couldn’t access network or internet reports, relied upon WW to keep them minimally up to date.

On Election Night many will be at all-night election parties perhaps away from their computers and I don’t know whether the listserve moderators will be sitting at their Blackberries to pass on the reports. So….if you wish to receive the bi-hourly reports directly, perhaps to announce results at your election party, please give me an email address to send them to you. I will create a special list for those who wish to directly receive the reports that night and not wait for the listserve. I will need your email address by Sunday, 2 November at the latest. Send me an email to johncmcqueen@gmail.com with the word “Election Night Email” in the subject line.  It would help if you would repeat your email address in the body of the email, thanks.

 

Today's Schedule (dailykos):  Obama: Chester, PA, Harrisonburg and Norfolk, VA; Michele Obama: Las Vegas, NM, Colorado Springs, CO; Joe Biden: Ocala and Melbourne FL.

      McCain/Palin together:  Hershey PA; McCain: Fayetteville NC; Palin: Shippensburg and University Park, PA.

 

            a. The biggest news of the day was the conviction, on all seven counts, of Alaska Senator Ted Stevens for falsifying required reports to the Senate Ethics Committee. It was a troublesome trial, with mishandling of evidence by the prosecution, disruptive jurors, replaced jurors, but the actual deliberations did not take long. It is hard to imagine that some Alaska Republican voters won’t want to end this slimy chapter in their history, given the corruption of their congressman, their former governor and the growing evidence for the current governor, and vote for Mark Begich. Begich was leading in the polls by less than 2%;; this may very well be the fifth guaranteed pickup on the way to 60.

            Update: McCain has called on Stevens to resign; Palin only says that Stevens should “do what is right for the people of Alaska.” 

 

            b. In Indiana, it is required by law for robocall outfits to use actual people to make the calls, rather than automated recordings. In Lake County, 30-40 call center workers walked off the job after being given a script that stated that Barack Obama does not protect the lives of children. The workers will not get paid for the hours they refused to read this text, but that did not seem to matter to most. 

 

            c. The McCain-Palin campaign is now buying ad time in – Montana!! Obama has been putting ads on the air for months and his 19 offices in the state have laid the groundwork for a big upset. Suddenly the McCain campaign is seeing what is happening there. This is very reminiscent of the kind of mistakes Hillary Clinton made with the caucuses last spring. 

 

            d. In Virginia, 50% of all voters in the state have been contacted directly by the Obama campaign, an unheard of ground game. There are now more than 100 Obama campaign offices statewide. The NAACP has filed a lawsuit against Gov.Tim Kaine and the State Election Board for not having enough voting locations to handle the expected very large increase in voter turnout. Virginia early voting exists only in some areas, not statewide. In Florida, the Supervisor of Elections in Pinellas County (St. Petersburg, home of the Tampa Bay Rays), a Republican, only allowed 3 locations to take early votes, causing very long lines. 

 

            e. Former Republican South Dakota Senator Larry Pressler has endorsed Barack Obama. 

 

            f. Tomorrow night is the 30 minute Obama TV ad on CNN, Fox, NBC and CBS. The World Series, if there is a game, will be delayed 7 minutes on Fox. No one yet knows how much of an audience there will be.

 

Quote of the day (ABC’s the Note): “Sen. Jon Kyl, R-Ariz., is loyal -- but also realistic. "Unfortunately, I think John McCain might be added to that long list of Arizonans who ran for president but were never elected," Kyl tells the Arizona Daily Star, listing Barry Goldwater, Mo Udall, and Bruce Babbitt. "Maybe, we'll be able to say Arizona's the only state where your child can't grow up to be president. Let's hope that doesn't happen."

 

            Electoral Vote Update:

             

                                    Obama                                    McCain

WW by region                                    Solid    Lean     Tossup             Lean     Solid

 

NE & Mid Atlantic (117)          117       0        0                      0          0

South Plus (173)                                   13           0        57                   0          103     

Midwest/Upper Plains (124)                65        20        25                   1*       13

West Coast/Mountain   (124)    82         9         8                    0         25

 

Total                                        (538)277          29        90                    1          141     

* Nebraska 02 congressional district.

Virginia/13                  51.3 – 44.0 + 7.3                     51.8 – 43.8 + 8.0

Solid Obama

Last week:                  52.8 – 44.8 + 8.0                     52.4 – 43.5 +8.9

            McCain and Palin keep coming to Virginia without much change in the polls. According to one observer from

overseas: “I spoke with my county voting official yesterday (VA-05, Albemarle Co) to confirm receipt of my ballot.  He mentioned that he had already received more absentee ballots to date than he had received for the 2004 election in total.” 

           

North Carolina/15      48.8 – 47.2 + 1.6                     49.1 – 46.9 + 2.2

Toss Up

Last week:                  48.3 – 46.0 + 3.3                     49.4 – 46.1 + 3.3

            The margins are tightening and the early votes already banked may make the difference. North Carolina will be close.

 

South Carolina/8        39.7 – 54.7 – 15.0                   42.7 - 54.5 - 12.8

Solid McCain  

Last week:                    no update                                 41.2 – 54.7 – 13.5

           

Georgia/15                  44.7 – 50.0 – 5.3                     45.3 – 49.3 – 4.0

Toss Up

Last week:                  44.2 – 51.0 – 6.8                     44.3 – 49.7 - 5.6

            The early voting statistics continue to show a higher-than-expected number of African-American voters and the margin keeps getting closer. Enough to win, maybe not, but most sites are now showing Georgia as a Toss Up state. The next week could be interesting.

           

Florida/27                   48.2 – 45.5 + 2.7                     48.1 – 45.9 + 2.2

Toss Up

Last week:                  48.6 – 46.6 + 2.0                     49.1 – 44.9 + 4.2

            Obama and Bill Clinton campaign together tomorrow in Orlando. Early votes are evenly split; massive ground game favors Obama. A must-win for McCain, not so much for Obama. Another Florida nail biter?

Alabama/9                  33.3 – 57.0 – 23.7                   35.3 – 57.5 – 22.2

Solid McCain  

Last week:                    33.5 – 57.3 – 23.8                   35.8 – 58.0 – 22.2

 

Mississippi/6              39.0 – 49.3 – 10.3                   37.0 – 47.8 – 10.8

Solid McCain

Last week:                   41.7 – 52.0 – 10.3                   40.8 – 50.3 – 9.5

 

Tennessee/11             38.8 – 52.8 = 14.0                   39.4 – 54.4 = 15.0

Solid McCain

Last week:                  38.0 – 53.7 – 15.7                   39.0 – 55.0 -16.0

                       

Kentucky/8                 41.3 – 53.7 – 12.4                   40.6 – 54.1 – 13.5

Solid McCain

Last week:                  40.0 – 53.8 – 13.8                   39.9 – 54.2 – 14.3

 

West Virginia/5          42.2 – 50.2 – 8.0                     40.8 – 50.6 – 9.8

Solid McCain

Last week:                  45.2 – 47.6 – 2.4                     43.5 – 48.4 – 4.9

            Most recent polling shows a bit of a comeback for Obama, but it’s uphill now.  

 

Louisiana/9                 38.7 – 54.3 - 15.6                   41.3 – 56.3 – 15.

Solid McCain

Last week:                  38.3 – 53.7 – 15.4                   39.8 – 55.4 – 15.6

 

 

Arkansas/6                 40.0 – 51.8 – 11.8                   39.8 – 51.6 – 11.8

Solid McCain

Last week:                  34.0 – 49.0 – 15.0                   41.5 – 52.1 – 8.6

            .

Texas/34                     40.7 – 54.3 – 13.6                   41.1 – 55.3 – 14.2

Solid McCain

Last week:                  40.3 – 53.7 - 13.4                    39.8 – 55.4 – 15.6

           

 

Oklahoma/7                30.3 – 59.3 – 29.0                   34.3 – 61.7 – 27.4

Solid McCain

Last week:                  30.0 – 61.0 – 31.0                   30.5 – 64.6 – 34.1

            Big News: Obama under 30 points down in Oklahoma!! Now that would be a comeback!!!   

With only one week to go, the 7-8 point lead in Virginia merits Solid label for Obama. 

North Carolina:  Hagan 46/3 Dole 44.3 + 2.0 Hagan 47.1 Dole 42.4 + 4.7   

Last week: Hagan 46.8 – Dole 43.5 + 3.3 Hagan 47.1 Dole 41.3

5.8.

            Dole has put some of her own wealth into the campaign, this one stays close, very close. Early voting seems to help; Democrats are 3% more likely to have voted for Hagan than Republicans for Dole. (92% to 89%).

                                   

Georgia   Martin 43.8 Chambliss 46.0 - 2.2 Martin 43.4 Chambliss 45.9 – 2.5

Last week:Martin 44.2 Chambliss 47.0 – 2.8    Martin 45.0 Chambliss 45.6

– 0.6

            Atlanta Journal Constitution endorsed Martin, called out Chambliss for his negative campaigning against Max Cleland four years ago. 

 

Mississippi Musgrove 42.0 Wicker 47.3 – 5.3 Musgrove 45.9 Wicker 46.2 – 0.3

Last week: Musgrove 45.3 Wicker 48.0 – 2.7 M 45.6 W 47.1 – 1.5

            The difference between RCP and pollster.com is an outlier from the University of South Alabama, which gave Wicker a +13. No way.

 

Kentucky: Lunsford 44.7 McConnell 48.3 – 3.6 Lunsford 44.4 – 47.4 – 3.0

Last week:      Lunsford 43.5 McConnell 47.8 - 4.3 L 42.7 Mc 47.2 – 4.5

            Another 1.5% closer! The Republican minority leader is still under 50% and Lunsford is gaining. Funny story out from the most recent debate; Republicans planted a tape recorder on Lunsford podium to catch any under-the-breath remarks. After the debate, Lunsford gave it his staffers; they erased the tape and gave the recorder back (after owner went to county Sheriff at the debate.) Now the Republicans are filing criminal theft and destruction of property charges against Lunsford. Hmmm.

 

Texas: none from RCP Noriega 42.8 Cornyn 52.2 - 9.6

Last week:        none                             Noriega 43.9 Cornyn 50.1 - 6.2

 

            This looks dire, but…early voting numbers around Texas are setting records already, with a week to go. In Tarrant County (between Dallas and Fort Worth), more than a quarter million voters have already voted; county election officials are warning of long waiting line on Friday (last day of early voting), expectation is that a half million will have voted early – in one large county!! Is this a sign of a major upset in the making? 

 

You know we already have Virginia in the bag; not much hope left in Oklahoma, though.          

 

House Races nationwide will be updated on Sunday and Monday in daily reports 22 and 23.

 

Tomorrow is Wednesday Wire day, where we will get away from the numbers for the last time before Election Day.

 

Best regards,

 

Heidelberg, Germany